Home Away From Home: Mariners Series Preview

Toronto Blue Jays @ Seattle Mariners

July 24th, July 25th, and July 26th

It was around this time last season that the Toronto Blue Jays embarked upon their disastrous 1-6 west coast road trip that included a four-game sweep at the hands of the Athletics. The result: the Jays went from first place to three games back. Fast forward to 2015 when, after a disappointing road trip prior to the All-Star Break, the Toronto Blue Jays have won two straight series and currently sit 5.5 games behind the AL East division-leading New York Yankees and are 3.0 games out of the second wild card spot. The series in Seattle marks the end of a very difficult July schedule that saw them play 16 of 25 games on the road due to the Pan Am Games. It also comes at a critical juncture in the season as the non-waiver trade deadline is just one week away. The trade of Scott Kazmir to the Astros on Thursday represents means that the first domino has fallen and, if the narrative is to be believed, the Jays must ensure that they stay close enough in the playoff race in order for Alex Anthopoulos to push his chips in and “go for it” this season.

Pitching Matchups:

July 24th – First Pitch 10:10 PM ET

Drew Hutchison v. Felix Hernandez

Originally scheduled to start Thursday afternoon versus the Athletics, Hutchison was scratched late Wednesday night due to flu-like symptoms, and instead will start the series tonight in Seattle. At the midpoint of the season, Drew Hutchison might be the biggest disappointment thus far. Hutchison has posted a 5.19 ERA with a WHIP of 1.47 – evidence that his misleading 9-2 record are the result of his league-leading run support (the Blue Jays have scored an average of 6.84 runs per game with Hutchison on the mound). What is even more curious, however, are his home/road splits. For some inexplicable reason, Hutchison has a 2.21 ERA and OBP of .219 when pitching at the Dome, but an 8.81 ERA and .363 OBP on the road. His last outing, Friday at home against the Rays, was a six inning effort that featured Hutchison throwing a quality changeup. Whether this marks a turnaround for Hutch or is simply reflective of his bizarre home/road splits is unclear; what is clear, however, is that in order for the Jays to remain competitive in the second half of the season, Hutchison is going to have to pitch to his potential on the road, beginning in Seattle.

The ace of the Mariners pitching staff, Felix Hernandez has been one baseball’s most dominant pitchers since entering the league in 2005. In fact, the man known as “King” has the most strikeouts in the majors in the past ten seasons. Despite this, his K/9 rate this season is 8.54, which represents a decline compared to the past three seasons, and BB/9 of 2.77, his highest since 2008. In 19 games started this season, Hernandez has an 11-5 record over 123.1 innings pitched with an ERA of 2.77, a FIP of 3.24 and a WHIP of 1.08. The movement on his changeup is deceptive and thrown at a velocity that makes it difficult to distinguish from his fastball. He has also started to rely to a greater extent on his curveball this season, which generates both swing-and-miss action as well as inducing batters to take it for a strike.

July 25th – First Pitch 4:10 PM ET

Marco Estrada v. J.A. Happ

Since entering the rotation in place of Daniel Norris in May, Marco Estrada has become very reliable. In his most recent start against the Rays on Sunday, Estrada pitched eight scoreless innings of three-hit ball, striking out five while walking none. For the season, Estrada has a K/9 rate of 7.01 and BB/9 rate of 2.75 over 95 innings pitched with a 3.22 ERA and 3.88 FIP. The biggest knock against Estrada in the past has been his tendency to give up home runs; this season, his HR/9 rate of 0.95 represents the lowest of his major league career, as does his .245 BABIP. Estrada pitches backwards, relying on his deceptive changeup, which he has been locating well as of late, over his 93mph fastball to induce both strikeouts and ground-ball outs.

This is the first time the Jays will face their former teammate since Happ was traded for left-fielder Michael Saunders. It has been a difficult season for Happ, who, after giving up four runs on seven hits in just four innings against the Tigers on July 9^th, was optioned to High-A. Though the Mariners cited roster configuration as the reason for the demotion, and Happ did not pitch while in the minors, it did come on the heels of a five-game stretch in which Happ had surrendered twenty earned runs in just 26 1/3 innings pitched. Happ was recalled at the beginning of this week and once again faced the Tigers, tossing seven innings and giving up three runs on four hits with two walks and two strikeouts. In eighteen starts this season, Happ is 4-5 over 102 2/3 innings with a 4.12 ERA and 3.65 FIP. He relies primarily on his four-seam fastball, which tops out around 93mph, followed by his sinker, cutter and changeup.

July 26th – First Pitch 4:10 PM ET

Mark Buehrle v Taijuan Walker

Veteran left-hander Mark Buehrle has been nothing short of brilliant, allowing no more than two earned runs in his last nine starts. More impressively, he has not walked a batter in 29 consecutive innings. In 128 1/3 innings this season, Buehrle is 11-5 with a 3.23 ERA – the lowest in his career over the last ten seasons – and 1.16 WHIP. His 85mph four-seam fastball and 80mph changeup induces a high number of ground-ball outs in comparison to other pitchers. Over his career, the Mariners are .290/.338/.543 with an OPS of .881 against Buehrle.

Twenty-two year old Taijuan Walker has struggled lately, giving up 16 earned runs over his last three starts, including 11 runs in just 11 innings pitched over his last two starts. He relies mainly on his four-seam fastball, which hits 95mph and generates an above-average whiffs/swing, as well as a hard splitter and rising cutter. In his last outing against the Jays, Walker lasted just 5.2 innings and gave up four earned runs on six hits, including two home runs, and four walks.

Additions and Subtractions

Aaron Sanchez – in his new role as relief pitcher – was originally scheduled to have joined the team in Oakland on Thursday. However, after a rough outing with the Buffalo Bisons on Tuesday night, it was decided that he would pitch at least one more time in Triple-A. After giving up just one walk in one inning pitched on Thursday night, it is possible that Sanchez will rejoin the Jays in Seattle. Though his name has not been in the news lately, it is worth noting that Michael Saunders (knee) has not yet begun a rehab assignment and is not expected to return until August at the earliest.

Mariners’ relief pitcher Charlie Furbush, who is on the 15-day DL due to a bicep strain, was scratched from his scheduled bullpen session last Saturday and is unlikely to return during this series.

Keep an Eye On

Jose Bautista

In his last five games, Jose Bautista has had five hits in 20 plate appearances including three home runs. In his career versus Felix Hernandez, Bautista is 7-for-23 with two home runs.

Russell Martin

In an offensive slump as of late, catcher Russell Martin had a break-out series against the Athletics, going 7-for-11 with two home runs and six RBI. Martin credits his recent success to a changed approach at the plate brought about by watching Devon Travis take batting practice. Martin recently changed hitting groups and now takes BP with the rookie.

Robinson Cano

The $200 million dollar slugger has been struggling greatly this season, posting a career-low average of .248 and OBP of .289 during the month of June. His struggles have been blamed on a stomach parasite that has left him with acid reflux. However, Cano is batting .352/.399/.655 with an OPS of 1.029 during July, and has been on fire since the All-Star Break. Over his last six games, Cano has gone 12-for-35 with three home runs and six RBI.

Probable Lineups

Final Thoughts

The Jays lost two of three at home to the Mariners in mid-May, struggling to score runs against Hernandez and James Paxton. Their 8-2 win in the last game of the series came against a struggling Taijaun Walker and on the back of a solid performance from Aaron Sanchez. However, the Mariners have fared quite poorly at Safeco Field this season with a 20-27 home record. The Blue Jays have proven in the past that they can beat both Hernandez and Walker, and should they get decent outings from their starting pitching, stand a good chance at their third straight series win. Given the pitcher-friendly nature of Safeco Field, expect a low-scoring series.

Picture via Anupam_ts and licensed under CC 2.0.

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