These Cards Are Wild: Twins Series Preview

Minnesota Twins @ Toronto Blue Jays

August 3-6, 2015

The Blue Jays are the talk of baseball right now. Having grabbed a premier shortstop and a rental ace, plus a few other minor pieces, it seems like everybody has something to say about them right now. Getting everybody’s attention is nice, and expectations are better being high than being low, but the Jays are now tasked with turning the buzz into some kind of positive results on the field. They started strong with their rejuvenated roster, as they took three of four from the AL leading Royals. They were in every game, won once on a walkoff, and had the whole crowd riled up with a bench clearing ‘incident’ in the Sunday afternoon game. The first game of the Twins series is a sellout, so have your TV or computer warmed up for the holiday Monday game.

Pitching Matchups:

Monday August 3rd – First Pitch 1:07 PM ET

David Price vs. Ervin Santana

Monday is David Price day. I could tell you that Price has a 2.23 ERA in 13 career GS vs. the Twins. Or that Price had a 2.25 ERA in July. However, instead I shall tell you to enjoy the day. The Twins have a good team, and it’s entirely possible that David Price has a bad game. Every pitcher has a bad game. However, David Price is an ace and the Blue Jays haven’t had one of those since Roy Halladay was last a Blue Jay. What that means is that regardless of how David Price actually pitches, you go into Monday thinking that you have an extremely good shot at a win. And that same feeling will continue down the stretch, every five days. That’s an ace. Appreciate it, Toronto.

Ervin Santana, whom the Minnesota Twins are throwing out on Monday, is not quite an ace. He was however, almost a Blue Jay; you may recall that Jays players were reportedly willing to adjust their contracts to make that signing happen. Santana ended up elsewhere, and quite a lot has changed since then. No longer must we think about the Blue Jays perceived ‘lack of funds’. Instead we get to watch Troy Tulowitzki, Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and many more have many attempts at mashing taters off their almost team-mate: Ervin Santana. Of note to that last point, Santana has had troubles limiting homers in patches throughout his career; one of those patches is right now. This season he’s posted his highest FB% since leaving the Angels. Santana also gave up 2 HR to the Pirates in his last start. Monday is going to be a fun game.

Tuesday August 4th – First Pitch 7:07 PM ET

Marco Estrada vs. Phil Hughes

Surprisingly to some, the clock has yet to strike midnight and Marco Estrada is not yet a pumpkin. If you ask me, he may never become that pumpkin that some have been expecting since early this season. Estrada will have games where he gives up 5 ER, 1 HR, and 3 BB; as he did on July 24th against the Mariners. He will also have games where he gives up only 3 hits over 8 IP; as he did in the start previous against the Rays. Such is the life of a back end starter. If you haven’t already, stop looking for Estrada to turn into a large, autumn gourd. He is what he is: look for the best, expect the worst, and know that there are three other capable, dependable starters in this rotation.

There may not be a single player in all of baseball who has performed worse than Phil Hughes…relative to expectations of course. Last season, by fWAR, Hughes was one of baseball’s five most valuable starting pitchers and set the record for the best K/BB in history. This season he’s one of baseball’s 15 least valuable starting pitchers. That’s quite the contrast. While Hughes’ strikeout rate is down, that hasn’t been his main issue. Instead, in 2015 Hughes has been plagued by the long ball. This is not new for him, as the HR has been Phil Hughes’ main enemy since his first step into the big leagues. However, last year he was able to keep the ball in the park, giving up just 0.69 HR/9. A large reason was Hughes’ newfound ‘ability’ to limit hard contact; only 27.2% of batted balls were hit hard, which was by far his best mark as a starter. This season, that has not been the case, and much like with Ervin Santana, Blue Jays hitters shouldn’t have a tough time getting Phil Hughes out of the game early.

Wednesday August 5th – First Pitch 7:07 PM ET

Drew Hutchison vs. Tyler Duffey

Drew Hutchison is on the chopping block…well, he is, if you ask a sizeable portion of this fanbase. Given that Hutch has a 5.42 ERA on the year and has options, one might think that those who want to see him sent down to AAA are justified. However, there are a couple problems with that logic. The first of which is that Drew Hutchison is not as bad as he’s looked. He may have a 5.42 ERA, but he’s also had a lot of bad luck. It’s pretty hard to will oneself into a .352 BABIP and a 65.1 LOB%; not all of that is of Hutchison’s doing via poor pitching. As a result, one would expect him to get somewhat better. Perhaps he won’t reach the ERA goals that have been set by his sub 4.00 FIP, but it should get better. As well, even if Hutch doesn’t get any better, the Blue Jays have dealt with him thus far, and he certainly can’t get much worse. The second such problem with the demotion logic is that the Jays don’t have much in the way of replacements. There’s A: Aaron Sanchez, a man of many walks and few strikeouts as a starter, who is not stretched out to go deep. Or there’s B: Scott Copeland, a man of poor stuff and little major league experience. Option A requires the Jays to give up having a very solid reliever. Option B requires the Jays to have an equally bad starter in the rotation. As a result, as bad as Hutch may be performing, he is here to stay. As with Estrada, enjoy the good (little as there may be), and tolerate the bad.

Unlike Mr. Hutchison, Tyler Duffey has little in the way of haters. Mostly because he has yet to make a major league start. That is slated to change on Monday, as Duffey looks to be getting a shot after would-be starter Tommy Milone hit the 15-day DL. At present, Duffey ranks at No. 15 on MLB.com’s Twins Top 30 prospect list, but Twins-gurus seem rather excited about him. Twins Daily MiLB contributor Jeremy Nygaard lauded Duffey’s 3-pitch mix and location, while Twins Daily founder Parker Hageman passes along this Vine of Tyler Duffey’s rather ridiculous curveball. With that said, I wouldn’t wish this current Jays lineup on anyone for their first taste of the big leagues. Duffey certainly has his work cut out for him.

Thursday August 6th – First Pitch 7:07 PM ET

Mark Buehrle vs. Kyle Gibson

Buehrle is still finding a way to get it done. After posting a an ERA close to 5.00 over April and May, Mark Buehrle has posted a 1.78 ERA in June and July. I won’t try to explain how exactly he has done it, for that I shall lead you to Steve McEwen’s review of Buehrle’s July. Instead I shall leave you with this: since the start of last season, Mark Buehrle has one of the top 30 ERAs in baseball. I can say with utmost certainty that that isn’t what I expected when the Jays acquired the now 36-year-old lefty, but I’m overjoyed each time he takes the mound. You do you, Mark.

Meanwhile, on the Twins side of things, we have what some might call a younger, harder throwing, more right-handed Buehrle. That would be Kyle Gibson. While in past years, Gibson didn’t have the ERA to match his older counterpart, this season the two are very close. At 3.44, Kyle Gibson’s ERA stands just 12 points above Buehrle’s. Like Mark, Kyle has done it by limiting the long ball and reducing hard contract through some rather astute command. Of the four Twins starters that the Jays shall face in this series, they’ll likely find Gibson to be the toughest. He’s going to make fewer mistakes than the likes of MLB-debuter Tyler Duffey and struggling starters Ervin Santana and Phil Hughes.

Additions and Subtractions

The Twins traded for a reliever at the deadline, picking up Kevin Jepsen from the Rays. You’ll likely see the new addition setting up for closer Glen Perkins. Also, Tommy Milone has an elbow injury that put him on the 15 day DL, so Tyler Duffey ha been called up for his major league debut.

The Jays did all of their shuffling last week at the deadline, adding Troy Tulowitzki, Price, Mark Lowe and Ben Revere. In the process they optioned Ryan Tepera, DFA’d Danny Valencia and Ezequiel Carrera, and waved goodbye to Jose Reyes. You may have missed it, but Devon Travis was placed on the 15 day DL with a reoccurence of his his shoulder injury. The ever popular Munenori Kawasaki is up so that Tulo can have a day off while Goins takes over at short and Mune plays second base. Just a couple little changes, really.

Keep an Eye On

If big swings and big homers are your thing, the Twins have 22 year old Miguel Sano to satisfy your appetite. The Twins have had their young DH/3B prospect up for 96 plate appearances so far, and he has 11 extra base hits and the second highest ISO on the team (his .247 barely trails Brian Dozier‘s .251). As an added bonus, his big pop, free swinging ways, and youth combine that power with a crazy 32.1% strikeout rate that’s 12th highest in all of baseball for players with 90 PA or more.

So, to illustrate, on the left, we have Sano’s swing rate, which show how much he believes in his ability to hit the baseball regardless of it’s location. On the right, we see that, for all his swings, the ones he makes in the zone really do some serious damage.

Now, in contrast we have the same two Trumedia heat maps, created from Jose Bautista’s profile. Jose is one of baseball’s most patient hitters, and yet he still does a lot of damage when he needs to, even when he expands the zone. Mr. Sano should be fun, but Bautista has a lot to teach young hitters about being an offensive weapon.

On the Blue Jays side, you can watch any of the top six hitters in this lineup. Tulowitzki, Josh Donaldson, Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion make for an incredibly deadly top four, but Chris Colabello and Russell Martin are very good at what they do as well. If you like defense, the upgrade Tulo provides simply by ranging to his left has already been noticeable in a handful of games since the trade. Or you can appreciate Ben Revere, who does the things you would expect a left fielder to do. There are players to enjoy watching in almost every direction at the old Skydome right now, so pull up a seat. It is possible you might have to find a scalper if you want a good one, much like the old Skydome days. Seems like the bandwagon can still hold 50,000 people.

Probable Lineups

Final Thoughts

The Blue Jays are a really, really good team. They just took three of four from the team with the best record in the American League: the Royals. Now, the Jays shall try to do the same to the Twins. If they are successful in winning this series, the Blue Jays will likely find themselves in one of the AL’s two wildcard spots, as they are presently one game back of the Twins. The Jays would also be in possession of a playoff spot for the first time since July 1st. They would then go on to face the AL East leading Yankees twice, and the Wildcard leading Angels once, over the next five series. The Jays still have a lot of ground to make up in order to tackle the top of the playoff picture, but they’re going to get a good shake at it very soon.

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