It’s Complicated: The Blue Jays’ Relationship with Dioner Navarro

The story behind Dioner Navarro‘s 2015 season has been, in a word, fascinating. Navarro was coming off of a good year in 2014 when the Blue Jays went out and signed Russell Martin to a 5 year contract, ending Navarro’s brief tenure as Toronto’s starting catcher. Navarro immediately let it be known in the media that he would not be happy as a bench player, and requested a trade from General Manager Alex Anthopoulos. However, while trying to accommodate the switch-hitting catcher, AA made it clear from the beginning that a move wouldn’t be made unless it was beneficial for the team. That didn’t materialize, so Navarro has shifted to the role of reserve player this season, catching about once every five games. His numbers have dropped from his 2014 season, but for a backup catcher, they have been more than respectable. He has done an all-around great job. But, with his large salary of $5 million and his inability to catch the knuckleball, it seems like a forgone conclusion that Navarro and the team would split ways after this season.

Rather, I should say “seemed”. Because on September 22nd, Anthopoulos went on Prime Time Sports with Bob McCown and when asked about the 2016 roster, Anthopoulos brought up Navarro and said that they would like to have him back next season. He even went as far as saying that they have already had dialogue with his camp about a possible return. The exact quote:

“Dioner [Navarro] is someone we’d like to have back [in 2016] as well. We’ve expressed that to him.”

At first, the possibility of a reunion between the Blue Jays and Navarro seems unnecessary. The Blue Jays already have a full-time catcher who can be counted on for around 120 games per season, and because of R.A. Dickey, their number one preference for a backup catcher should be a player who has experience with or would be able to catch the knuckleball. It really shouldn’t be a priority for the Blue Jays to re-sign Navarro when there will surely be/surely are cheaper options available who can provide a similar amount of value. After all, Navarro isn’t exactly lighting up the scorecard with incredible numbers. His wRC+ for the year stands at 83, and his defense has always been known to be a bit spotty. It wouldn’t be so hard to find a catcher to do that for a cheaper amount than the likely $5 million a year Navarro will demand in the coming year.

However, that line of thinking ignores where Navarro’s true value comes from, and why Alex Anthopoulos is keen on seeing him return to the Blue Jays in 2016.

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If you are a frequent reader of this site, you’ll have read various articles Joshua Howsam has written over the past 2 seasons that have praised Dioner Navarro for his pitch calling.

In 2014, it was Mark Buehrle who was getting help from a new approach to the game from Navarro. A combination of changing speeds and location more often than he had ever done before in his career helped Buehrle have his best season since 2005 in both ERA and FIP. In 2015, Buehrle hasn’t been as consistent, and Dioner Navarro has only caught 10 of his 30 starts. Catcher’s ERA is a very flawed stat because it ignores literally every factor aside from the guy sitting behind the plate, but it has some value in a case like this when it is possible to see the different approach taken by catchers with a certain pitcher. With Russell Martin catching him in 2015, Buehrle has an ERA of 4.13, while it is 3.09 when Navarro is behind the dish. Again, although those numbers need to be taken with a huge grain of salt, they do show a significant difference in performance.

In 2015, it has been Marco Estrada who has benefitted from Dioner Navarro’s game calling expertise. As with Buehrle, there were two noticeable changes in Estrada’s game that can be tied to Navarro. He was calling for his pitches in different locations than previous catchers, putting Estrada in the best situation to succeed, while also calling for more cutters than ever before. This has led to a relationship forming between the two, and Estrada giving some very high praise to the catcher:

The success of this relationship can also be highlighted in Marco Estrada’s 2015 splits. In the 19 starts Navarro has caught Estrada in, his ERA is just 2.63. In the 14 games Russell Martin has caught Estrada, his ERA is 4.11. The Blue Jays have taken notice of how well the two work together, and John Gibbons has said that in Estrada’s playoff starts, it will be Navarro behind the plate, not Martin. In the piece by Shi Davidi that was just linked, Estrada gives more praise to Navarro:

“It’s awesome working the guy, he knows how to call a game, that’s for sure,” said Estrada. “I just try to follow, try to keep up with him as much as I can, I don’t really disagree with the guy ever. Like I’ve said before, if I hit the glove, I’m probably going to be pretty successful.”

Of course, there is a very strong chance that neither Mark Buehrle or Marco Estrada will be back with the Blue Jays in 2016, as they are both set to be free agents in five weeks. However, that doesn’t mean Navarro won’t be able to work his “magic” with any other pitcher on the Blue Jays staff if given the opportunity. Navarro himself said that “the biggest thing is when they get to the point where they know they can trust me, that’s it.” That could only happen once a strong relationship is formed.

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The free agent pool at catcher this off-season is a strange one as there are only 7 available names. Of the 7, Navarro is probably anywhere from the 2nd to 4th best on the list, depending on how you choose to evaluate talent. This means that he won’t have any trouble finding a contract to play in 2016, and will very likely be a sought-after free agent. Whether Navarro is back in 2016 likely comes down to whether the Blue Jays increase their payroll by a significant amount, which is expected, thanks to Canada’s incredible support for this team since the Troy Tulowitzki deal. The Blue Jays probably want him back to work with one of their young pitchers next year to maximize their talents. Navarro probably just wants to get paid and go to a team where he is comfortable. If Toronto can do both of those things, then hopefully Marco Estrada’s 2015 post-season starts won’t be the last time we see Dioner Navarro on the field as a Toronto Blue Jay.

Featured picture courtesy of Keith Allison under CC BY-SA 2.0. Photo has been cropped from it’s original size.

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